back to the gothic wonderland tonight...

really havent been back in 5 years... hope i still know my way around.

wow

a good start. MSU and BC both up 7-0, ND looks horrible. maybe the football gods are gonna smile at me.

One more late pick for me. Boise -14.5. Huge steam play.

DOH

Bama misses the FG. Air Force scores a TD.

so much for momentum... maybe its cause its a bad day, but i want to bet more on BC now (discipline, discipline)

YEAH.

Arkansas throws an INT in OT, almost returned for a TD, but CB is caught at midfield. Only problem-- BAMA's kicker is horrible

at least somethign is going right

OSU scored 2 TDs from defense in garbage time to cover. that's abotu all that's going right. Arkansas needs a last minute FG to send it under otherwise i'm in trouble. WVU just can't score and wyoming is not looking good.

yuck

0-4 on the afternoon is a distinct possibility.

PSU up 3-0 on OSU and driving
wvu/ecu tied at 7
AF up 7-0 on wyoming

only the 10-3 halftime of bama/ark is looking ok.

the ACC is horrible

VT came back and beat cincy by 2 tds but the ACC is horrible this year. No significant non-conference wins. In fact, I think it is worse than the BIG EAST. Louisville and W. Virginia are better than anyone in the ACC and the rest of the teams are relatively close as well. I think Rutgers and Pitt could beat almost anyone else in the conference and UNC, Duke and UVa probably couldn't beat anyone in the Big least.

all quiet on western front

2 games on now-- OSU and Bama. not much happening in either game. Ark up 3-0 after 1. scoreless in the other in some rain.

PSU hasn't come close to running the ball yet so OSU needs to find a way to make 18 points.

Afternoon thoughts

i'm down but not out. here you go


Bama under 38
Ohio State - 17
Wyoming Pick-em
Michigan State +140
BC - 6.5
WVU - 21.5

Some thoughts.

- Love the SEC under this year, especially a game with young QBs.

- After seeing what OSU did to a young Texas QB, this PSU guy has no chance. I think their team speed should create lots of TOs versus PSU

- My favorite game is Wyoming (though i didnt bet any more). Going into the season, they owuld have been a 10 point favorite and then AF plays Tenn close and everyone goes crazy. This happens alot with option teams. They play well against a non-conference opponent who has never seen the option and expect them to overperform against ateam that is used to it.

-BC - 6.5: I will bet again Chuck the Chest until he proves me wrong. This team will quit on his coach and go into freefall. Not if but when.

-WVU: Love steve slaton. WVU needs to throw some numbers on the board. After what they did to MD, they should pummel EZU

Afternoon thoughts

i'm down but not out. here you go


Bama under 38
Ohio State - 17
Wyoming Pick-em
Michigan State +140
BC - 6.5
WVU - 21.5

Some thoughts.

- Love the SEC under this year, especially a game with young QBs.

- After seeing what OSU did to a young Texas QB, this PSU guy has no chance. I think their team speed should create lots of TOs versus PSU

- My favorite game is Wyoming (though i didnt bet any more). Going into the season, they owuld have been a 10 point favorite and then AF plays Tenn close and everyone goes crazy. This happens alot with option teams. They play well against a non-conference opponent who has never seen the option and expect them to overperform against ateam that is used to it.

-BC - 6.5: I will bet again Chuck the Chest until he proves me wrong. This team will quit on his coach and go into freefall. Not if but when.

-WVU: Love steve slaton. WVU needs to throw some numbers on the board. After what they did to MD, they should pummel EZU

tally for the morning

up

Michigan Under
Louisville -13

Down

Iowa -21 (no over yet, but they are just killing the clock)
Purdue Over
UNC + (less than 50)

well they tried to blow it

24-6 louisville. K-state has 4th and 4 on the louisville 25. throw a pass 20 yards out of bounds. late hit on lousiville. Thankfully, they turn it over the next play. first win of the day.

thank you brent

27-10 2 minutes left. Wisconsin on the michigan 8. 4th and goal. They... decide.. to.. KICK A FIELD GOAL!!

Thanks coach.

damn

illinois scores... 24-7. My safe pick is now in trouble...please keep tate in the game.

great news

just found out i bet michigan at 41.5 not 41. yeah. this last drive isn't that big after all.

great news

just found out i bet michigan at 41.5 not 41. yeah. this last drive isn't that big after all.

so much more momentum

Wisco decides to committ personal fouls to give michigan field position and K-states scores a TD then recovers an onside kick

michigan scores..

doh. no more points in the last 11 minutes.

24-0 Louisville

even if I didnt bet on them, they are so fun to watch.

Michigan's D is dominant

Wisco has 5 straight 3 and outs... thankfully they have a very good punter.

D'oh. Breston returns one to the 31.

oooh

illinois driving and drop a wide open pass in the end zone. They are 0-3 for a reason.

michigan scores

up 17-10. gotta D it up now guys. no more points. but don't cause any turnovers either which will give your offense good field position

ever want to have fun on a saturday

go to the message board of a team that's getting smacked.

http://mb23.scout.com/finsidecarolinafrm10

not good

iowa/illinois still 21-0. need another TD before the 4th quarter then Iowa will take its starters out

42-0

go heels

lack of creativity

don't think there is anything less creative than colleges public service messages ads which networks are required to run once during any game. There are basically two types-- one a highlight film showing athletic excellence and the other showing academic excellance.

Personally, I think all college use the same chemistry shot for all of their ads.

This is like the laundry ad where the dirty kid coming in caked with mud and then they show a side by side comparison between the new detergents and a "leading" brand. No creativity.

nerves

nothing gets you going more than rooting for a game to go under. You want teams to drive the ball to midfield then punt. Don't walk 3 and outs, but obviously don't want them in the red zone unless they have an awful red zone offense. Actually field goals are greast in under games.

It gets even more complicated when the game is tied and you have to try to avoid the college overtime. Michigan/Wisco 10-10 in the middle of the third. I love saturdays.

TD Louisville

I am actually "winning" a bet... wow. i'm sure it won't last. To this point, Bobby Petrino makes adjustments better than anyone I have ever seen. Too bad he didn't have enough experience for the Duke coaching job.

TD Louisville

I am actually "winning" a bet... wow. i'm sure it won't last. To this point, Bobby Petrino makes adjustments better than anyone I have ever seen. Too bad he didn't have enough experience for the Duke coaching job.

minnesota drifves to the 2 and throws an interception 10-7 at the half. Not sure what has a bette chance this game going over or UNC covering 17?

21-0

Iowa up 21-0 now. Drew Tate throw a nice deep ball after another Illinois turnover. My best play is starting to look good.

Illinois has benched their freshman QB and put Tim Brasic in. It seems like just yesteday I was on the sidelines of the best high school football game ever. Joliet Catholic 55, Riverside Brookfield 50. when Brasic threw 7 TDs in a game with a total of 4 defensive stops. Now he is a redshirt senior.

Damn I'm old.

usa down 10-6

after Tiger wins the last match of the day. don't think it justifies me getting up early in the morning to watch singles tomorrow. they are showing that day live when the US has no chance.

colorado is smacking UGA around. just watched the last few minutes of the 1st half and UGA just didn't show up.

Never mind

I'm a dumb ass.

The louisville/ K-state game is on TV. Funny, no website has "Alt 5" listed on their website. Can someone explain to me why I don't get Fox Sports Channel, but do get Fox Soccer Channel, but why Fox Sports Channel content is on Alt 5 on my TV?

anyone anyone.. Bueller?

The ACC really sucks

Va Tech down 10-5 to Cincinnati. Take that all you people you didn't believe me when I said VT sucked when they were spanking Duke all over the field

poker

want to start an I hate Jamie gold group on Facebook. but i am still trying to figure out how to do it without appearing to be anti-semetic. Granted, Jamie fulfills almost every negative Jewish stereo type do I need to find a more creative way to critize.

usa down 10-6

after Tiger wins the last match of the day.  don't think it justifies me getting up early in the morning to watch singles tomorrow

21-0

Illinois has benched their freshman QB and put Tim Brasic in.  It seems like just yesteday I was on the sidelines of the best high school football game ever.  Joliet Catholic 55, Riverside Brookfield 50.  when Brasic threw 7 TDs in a game with a total of 4 defensive stops.  Now he is a redshirt senior.Damn I'm old.

 

Iowa finally starting to move the ball as Kirk Feretz starts to adjust to Illinois blitzing every play.  Way can't so many big name coaches make simple adjustment.

 

clemson up 28-0.  Maybe UNC really is this bad.  or maybe they are trying to give Duke a false sense of confidence.  With John Bunting, Chuck the Chest, Larry Coker and Al Groh almost sure to be fired this year, Ted Roof may be one of the more senior ACC coaches this year.

 

Go Duke

pet peeve

NBC are a bunch of dumb asses.  They are showing a tape delay of the ryder cup WHILE THE EVENT IS IN PROGRESS.  Why would anyone watch, especially as the US is getting trounced.  If you know me, I am as patroitic as they get but I will watch the US get smacked live, but I won't do it when they are on tape delay.  I ain't that masochistic.

Minnesota and Purdue look like high school teams.  Never seen so many false starts in my life.  Iowa looks like they might actually score a point.  Hayden Fry would be proud.

way to start the day

Let's see where to start

 

Iowa and Illinos are scoreless almost at halftime.  clemson made up the 18 points in about 2 seconds and Minnesota and Iowa have decided to stop passing the ball in a 7-3 slugfest.

 

Louisville is up 7, but from the internet looks way to be struggling.

forgot one..

 

UNC +18 versus Clemson.  now that was a great pick.

today's picks

a bit after kickoff, but after looking at them-- trust me i didn't change anything

 

 

Iowa - 21 vs. Illinois--  Illinois is just horrible, Iowa usually does well against a big number and doesn't look ahead.

Louis -14 vs. KSU-- Don't care that their best 2 players are gone.  This team is focus and just slapped miami around.  one of the most athletic teams around.  noone wants to believe they are any good.

Mich/Wisco Under 42-- Mich defense loves to bend but not bend and go under.  And noone has big let downs like Lloyd carr teams

Wyoming +1 vs. Air Force-- My best play of the day.  Should be a 10 point favorite if AF didn't play Tennessee close.  Wyoming has seen the option before and knows how to stop it.

Minn/Purdue Over 60.5--  Love going over high totals.  Both teams gave up over 30 to bad MAC teams.

picks

last week was horribel in ncaa and got some back in nfl, especially with the vikings.. here we go for this week.

NCAA

Oklahoma +5 vs. Oregon
Wake/UConn Over 41
Florida -3 vs. Tennessee
WMU/Virginia Under 44
Auburn -3 vs. LSU

NFL

New Orleans / GB Over 38
Detroit/ Chicago Over 32
Oakland/Baltimore Under 34

 

well yesterday's NCAA sucked.  I watched most of the games and feel like with the exception of Texas I was on the right side for most of the games, which is good.  Now time for NFL, which is where our bread is buttered.  Remember my rules.

 

1) Never take any team who more than 60% of the teams on Wagerline like.

2) Always look to favor underdogs.

3) Never take the Bears over or Colts Under.

4) If all of your friends like one team, take the other.

 

Before I start, here is the latest update from Wagerline.

 

Time (ET)	Away	Line	Picks	Pct	Home	Line	Picks	Pct	View
1:00 PM	Atlanta	+4.5	1239	31.01%	Carolina	-4.5	2757	68.99%	Detail
1:00 PM	Buffalo	+10	1226	32.07%	New England	-10	2597	67.93%	Detail
1:00 PM	N.Y. Jets	+2.5	1295	34.5%	Tennessee	-2.5	2459	65.5%	Detail
4:15 PM	San Francisco	+9	1352	37.17%	Arizona	-9	2285	62.83%	Detail
1:00 PM	Baltimore	+3	1583	41.52%	Tampa Bay	-3	2230	58.48%	Detail
1:00 PM	New Orleans	+3	1682	45.05%	Cleveland	-3	2052	54.95%	Detail
4:15 PM	Dallas	-1	2505	62.84%	Jacksonville	+1	1481	37.16%	Detail
8:15 PM	Indianapolis	-3	2630	66.21%	N.Y. Giants	+3	1342	33.79%	Detail
4:15 PM	Chicago	-3.5	2772	70.55%	Green Bay	+3.5	1157	29.45%	Detail
1:00 PM	Denver	-3.5	2845	72.91%	St. Louis	+3.5	1057	27.09%	Detail
1:00 PM	Philadelphia	-6	2949	73.76%	Houston	+6	1049	26.24%	Detail
1:00 PM	Cincinnati	+1	3099	74.07%	Kansas City	-1	1085	25.93%	Detail
1:00 PM	Seattle	-6.5	3246	78.42%	Detroit	+6.5	893	21.58%	Detail

 

Detroit +6.5 over Seattle.  The #1 play from Wagerline usually looks good.   I actually kinda like Detroit this year.  Mike Martxz can score points and Detroit has a pretty big home field advantage early in the year before the fans give up.  Plus Jon Kitna can succeed in this style of offense.  Best pick

 

Houston +6.  Almost same logic as the game above.  David Carr gets a new coordinator and everyone is counting on Philly to recover.  Plus home field advantage in week one is usually bigger than most other weeks.

 

So there you go.  If I didn't have my Bears rule, I would also be taking the Packers as well.

 

 

wall street journal

As if Duke's football team didn't cause enough problems the WSJ (and I don't mean winston salem journal) shit all over the Duke admissions process today.  The story talked about how Duke and Brown, two wannabe ivies, have been actively recruiting the children of captains of industries in order to ensure that the Tobacco baron's university would continue to be well endowed.   It make it seem like Duke and Brown are the only two schools which engage in this practice and that all Duke is concerned about it fundraising.

 

Luckily, the reporter omitted several of the big-time students which attended the school and the infamous Alicia Silverstone controversy of the mid-90s.  It also neglected to mention how Duke admitted levels of women and minorities which are much higher than its "peer" schools, two groups who tend to give at much lower levels than the evil white males.

 

I wonder if our PR department will respond to the article.  It should be a welcome relief to be corrected press inaccuracies which have nothing to do with games played with sticks.

don't even know what to say anymore...

 

Duke football has taken at least another 3.5 hours out of my life and possibly a few years off my life.  Lost a 14-13 game to Wake.   considering that they were 19.5 point dogs, not that bad, right, eh?  But this game was lost in a way that only Duke can lose em.

 

In the first quarter, the offense was on first.  Over 300 yards of total offense.  We had a 16-2 edge in first downs at the half.  Thad Lewis looked like the best Duke QB since Spence Fischer.  So duke must have been up 20-0 right?  maybe 27-3?  Nope, 10-0.   We were in the red zone 4 times and walked away with 3 points.  1 short missed field goal from the 27 yards outs, 2 turnovers in the red zone.  2nd and goal from the 2 after moving 60 yards in 7 plays.  Let's go out of the shotgun why don't we?  Quick bad snap and that scoring chance is finished.

 

Then halftime comes.  In classic Duke fashion, nothing of substance occurred in the locker room.  Wake made some adjustments to stop our weak-side waggle off pass-action which was so effective.  Duke, did ummmm, really not sure yet.  Halftime ends and Wake starts moving the ball and has 3 possessions where they walk down the field to our end zone.  Thankfully, they pulled a Duke and made some mistakes after getting the ball to the one so they only had 14 points to show for it.  Duke meanwhile stops their aggressive passing game which moved the ball down the field four times and moves to a george perles run-run-pass playcalling methodology.  A couple big plays which created a field goal, but the rhythm was gone.  We were clearly playing not to lose.   The only time we were aggressive was with 4 minutes left and a 6 point lead when we actually did need to milk some clock.   Roofie must have gone to the Art Shell school of game management.

 

Well, you know how it ends.  After Wake drives for a touchdown to go up 14-13.  Duke gets it back and gets it to the 6 yard line with 9 seconds to go.  Do we take a shot at the end zone with a timeout and a sketchy kicker?  Nope.  Instead, we put the game on the football of Joe Surgan, ourkicker.  Kick blocked ball game.  Welcome to 0-2, blue devils.  With Va Tech up next it looks like an 0-3 team will be showing up at homecoming to play UVa.  Scarily, that might be our most winnable game for the rest of the schedule

 

I realized that most of this is written as a fan, not as a neutral observation, but that doesn't make it any less relavant.  There are some positive signs.  Thad Lewis is a player.  If he can stay healthy for the rest of the year (which if sketcky with our o-line) he could be of the top freshman in the country.  Defense is much improved, though team speed is a big problem.  But this was a game which Duke would have,should have, could have won.

 

It seems Duke just doesn't know how to win.  Is that something you can teach?

one last pick

Duke/Wake Over 37.   Duke has a completely inexperienced offensive line.  no experience at quarterback and Wake's QB is out of the game.  Need to go over... why you ask?  lots of possession, lots of turnovers.  turnovers cause field position which causes points.  Love the over..

Picks of the week...

1-2 last week, glad i didn't pick more games.  nothing like Mack Brown covering more than 5 tuddies. 

 

so here's we go...

 

Texas -2.5 vs. Ohio State.   Has a #1 vs. #2 game ever gotten this little hype?  Noone is talking about this game.  ND/Penn St is getting more hype.  Anyway,  Colt McCoy should be able to manage UT to a win in this one.  Ohio State proved they are a one-man team and one man team don't win championships.  To think I am picking Mack Brown in a big game is getting scary.

 

Penn St +8 vs. ND.  Lots of people think this is a bounceback game for the Irish.  But QBs with happy feet  don't lose them, especially against a good defense.   Plus ND still has noone who can cover Derrick Williams.

 

Texas Tech -7 vs. UTEP.  The system the system, the system.

 

 

NFL to come later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL

Duke football...not good-- the Roof is falling in

Duke football lost yesterday.  Again.  To a Division I-AA team. 13-0.  That's right, they didn't score.  And until the last 5 minutes, they weren't particularly close.  It wasn't like Richmond was just opportunistic, they dominated every phase of the game.

 

As a result, Blue Devil nation is pissed.  Surprisingly, they have enough energy or care enough to be pissed, especially after the administration cancelled Tailgate.  Most people are calling for Ted Roof's head, Joe Alleva's head and even Bill O'Brien (new offensive coordinator)'s head.  Everyone is pissed and looking for answers, but are concerned about starting another cycle of turnover/change and excuses.  the real questions is.. "Why can't Duke identify and hire a capable head coach?"

 

I think alot of it that that 1) we are too influences by recentevents (e.g. the recency mental block per MBA books) and the administration is just unaware of what makes a good head coach.

 

let's remember something. A football coach at a high-profile I-A schools is

1) an administrator first
2) then a leader,
3) then a motivator

then concerns himself with things around football. I don't think anyone here is questioning Ted Roof's knowledge of football, but rather his ability to lead an organization. That is where I think this thing is falling apart.

Famous business author Malcolm Gladwell, once said in an interview, that he would be a better coach or general manager than many in the NBA or NFL (including Isiah Thomas) despite never having played either game past high schoool. His reasoning was not that he knew any more than the others , but because he knew less and KNEW IT.

Over the past 2 years, Duke's problems have been due to poor preparation and adjustments-- (read: asst. coaches aren't doing their job). Now this is either happening because Ted can't hire/retain competant coaching or he won't let them do their job. Neither is acceptable.

I think we need to understand this whenever the next coaching search begins. The problem with Franks and Roof (both somewhat successful Asst. coaches)is that they haven't been able to exhibit organizational leadership. This is why previous D-1 head coaching experience is so important. it is also why I am a bit more skeptical of a I-AA head coach. Due to the smaller size, these coaches need to be more hands-on and can't manage the organization.

Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells, Pete Caroll and Mack Brown are great examples of this. Neither of them is known as a visionary, either on offense or defense, but they surroung themselves with talented people, motivate them and see the results.

one more

didn't see there was a line on Texas/ N. Texas

 

I'll take UT to open the season and cover big points against ANY team.  Lay the 41 with dirty orange.

opening football weekend.  I was able to have enough discipline to not bet ont he Nevada Dresno state game last night.

I dindt realize how few games there would be tonight.  I am getting zero value for my ESPN Gamplan.  What also pisses me off though is that they are putting some decent games on ESPNU.  seems a bit deceptive to me, but oh well.

 

 

anyway pics for today, (none of which I actually like that much,but oh well).

 

Michigan - 26 vs. Vanderbilt.   Noone is better against bad opposition than Chad Henne.  Also coaches on the hot seat tend to cover big numbers.

 

Notre Dame -6.5 at Ga Tech.  I know you aren't supposed to take ND and this has all the makings of a trap line.  But Weis doesn't coach like a normal ND coach and I think calvin johnson is the most overhyped WR in the country.  Also, ND's defense couldn't be much worse.  When ND has been gamplanning for a game for 5 months, you know they will be sharp.

 

 

Also of note, all NCAA totals this week.  with the new clock rules, it looks like there will be 15-20 fewer plays per game.  Will the average better adjust.  Would betting every game unde this week be a good choice??  we'll see.