Hilary

I got a great question from Question Wonderland today—“Will Hilary be the next President of the United States?” I gave a short answer in the comments section but felt this important issues deserved a longer answer.

First let me put a few issues on the table. I voted for Bill Clinton in his second term and I would have voted for him in his first term if I was old enough to vote. I also voted for George W. Bush twice as well and am glad that I did.

I am not even sure if the Democratic Party would want Hilary to run. She would be a great fundraiser but would not help Democratic in areas where they are not already strong.

My biggest problem with Hilary is the way she consistently changes her views. She had always been against the US involvement in foreign countries, however, over the past few votes she voted for the funding so that she could not be called soft on defense. Less than a week after the election, she gave a speech at Tufts University about the importance of prayer. This is from a democrat? Wasn’t this the same Hilary who opposed references to God in public schools.

But I haven’t answered the original question—Will she win? A lot of it depends on who she runs against. If it is just ultraliberal Howard Dean, then Hilary will have a chance to play the moderate card. However, if Evan Bayh, the popular moderate governor of a traditionally Democratic state enters the primaries, Hilary will have a problem. She will have trouble supporting her political record.

Bayh would also be a more electable in the general election as well. For a democratic candidate to have a chance, they need to be able to win the Midwest as and the southwest. Evan could help to deliver the Midwest, much better than Hilary. I am not even going to address whether John Kerry might run again. The past campaign showcased his complete lack of political record and inconsistency on issues. Kerry has no chance.

Who will the Republicans. I think the most likely candidates are John McCain or Bill Frist. McCain has great crossover appeal and a tremendous military record. If McCain runs, I can’t see anyone beating him. He could sweep the South and Southwest and easily win. Frist would be very strong with the elderly as well as the South. Hilary could have a chance against him.

So will Hilary win? Probably not— Thank god.