well yesterday's NCAA sucked.  I watched most of the games and feel like with the exception of Texas I was on the right side for most of the games, which is good.  Now time for NFL, which is where our bread is buttered.  Remember my rules.

 

1) Never take any team who more than 60% of the teams on Wagerline like.

2) Always look to favor underdogs.

3) Never take the Bears over or Colts Under.

4) If all of your friends like one team, take the other.

 

Before I start, here is the latest update from Wagerline.

 

Time (ET)	Away	Line	Picks	Pct	Home	Line	Picks	Pct	View
1:00 PM	Atlanta	+4.5	1239	31.01%	Carolina	-4.5	2757	68.99%	Detail
1:00 PM	Buffalo	+10	1226	32.07%	New England	-10	2597	67.93%	Detail
1:00 PM	N.Y. Jets	+2.5	1295	34.5%	Tennessee	-2.5	2459	65.5%	Detail
4:15 PM	San Francisco	+9	1352	37.17%	Arizona	-9	2285	62.83%	Detail
1:00 PM	Baltimore	+3	1583	41.52%	Tampa Bay	-3	2230	58.48%	Detail
1:00 PM	New Orleans	+3	1682	45.05%	Cleveland	-3	2052	54.95%	Detail
4:15 PM	Dallas	-1	2505	62.84%	Jacksonville	+1	1481	37.16%	Detail
8:15 PM	Indianapolis	-3	2630	66.21%	N.Y. Giants	+3	1342	33.79%	Detail
4:15 PM	Chicago	-3.5	2772	70.55%	Green Bay	+3.5	1157	29.45%	Detail
1:00 PM	Denver	-3.5	2845	72.91%	St. Louis	+3.5	1057	27.09%	Detail
1:00 PM	Philadelphia	-6	2949	73.76%	Houston	+6	1049	26.24%	Detail
1:00 PM	Cincinnati	+1	3099	74.07%	Kansas City	-1	1085	25.93%	Detail
1:00 PM	Seattle	-6.5	3246	78.42%	Detroit	+6.5	893	21.58%	Detail

 

Detroit +6.5 over Seattle.  The #1 play from Wagerline usually looks good.   I actually kinda like Detroit this year.  Mike Martxz can score points and Detroit has a pretty big home field advantage early in the year before the fans give up.  Plus Jon Kitna can succeed in this style of offense.  Best pick

 

Houston +6.  Almost same logic as the game above.  David Carr gets a new coordinator and everyone is counting on Philly to recover.  Plus home field advantage in week one is usually bigger than most other weeks.

 

So there you go.  If I didn't have my Bears rule, I would also be taking the Packers as well.

 

 

wall street journal

As if Duke's football team didn't cause enough problems the WSJ (and I don't mean winston salem journal) shit all over the Duke admissions process today.  The story talked about how Duke and Brown, two wannabe ivies, have been actively recruiting the children of captains of industries in order to ensure that the Tobacco baron's university would continue to be well endowed.   It make it seem like Duke and Brown are the only two schools which engage in this practice and that all Duke is concerned about it fundraising.

 

Luckily, the reporter omitted several of the big-time students which attended the school and the infamous Alicia Silverstone controversy of the mid-90s.  It also neglected to mention how Duke admitted levels of women and minorities which are much higher than its "peer" schools, two groups who tend to give at much lower levels than the evil white males.

 

I wonder if our PR department will respond to the article.  It should be a welcome relief to be corrected press inaccuracies which have nothing to do with games played with sticks.

don't even know what to say anymore...

 

Duke football has taken at least another 3.5 hours out of my life and possibly a few years off my life.  Lost a 14-13 game to Wake.   considering that they were 19.5 point dogs, not that bad, right, eh?  But this game was lost in a way that only Duke can lose em.

 

In the first quarter, the offense was on first.  Over 300 yards of total offense.  We had a 16-2 edge in first downs at the half.  Thad Lewis looked like the best Duke QB since Spence Fischer.  So duke must have been up 20-0 right?  maybe 27-3?  Nope, 10-0.   We were in the red zone 4 times and walked away with 3 points.  1 short missed field goal from the 27 yards outs, 2 turnovers in the red zone.  2nd and goal from the 2 after moving 60 yards in 7 plays.  Let's go out of the shotgun why don't we?  Quick bad snap and that scoring chance is finished.

 

Then halftime comes.  In classic Duke fashion, nothing of substance occurred in the locker room.  Wake made some adjustments to stop our weak-side waggle off pass-action which was so effective.  Duke, did ummmm, really not sure yet.  Halftime ends and Wake starts moving the ball and has 3 possessions where they walk down the field to our end zone.  Thankfully, they pulled a Duke and made some mistakes after getting the ball to the one so they only had 14 points to show for it.  Duke meanwhile stops their aggressive passing game which moved the ball down the field four times and moves to a george perles run-run-pass playcalling methodology.  A couple big plays which created a field goal, but the rhythm was gone.  We were clearly playing not to lose.   The only time we were aggressive was with 4 minutes left and a 6 point lead when we actually did need to milk some clock.   Roofie must have gone to the Art Shell school of game management.

 

Well, you know how it ends.  After Wake drives for a touchdown to go up 14-13.  Duke gets it back and gets it to the 6 yard line with 9 seconds to go.  Do we take a shot at the end zone with a timeout and a sketchy kicker?  Nope.  Instead, we put the game on the football of Joe Surgan, ourkicker.  Kick blocked ball game.  Welcome to 0-2, blue devils.  With Va Tech up next it looks like an 0-3 team will be showing up at homecoming to play UVa.  Scarily, that might be our most winnable game for the rest of the schedule

 

I realized that most of this is written as a fan, not as a neutral observation, but that doesn't make it any less relavant.  There are some positive signs.  Thad Lewis is a player.  If he can stay healthy for the rest of the year (which if sketcky with our o-line) he could be of the top freshman in the country.  Defense is much improved, though team speed is a big problem.  But this was a game which Duke would have,should have, could have won.

 

It seems Duke just doesn't know how to win.  Is that something you can teach?

one last pick

Duke/Wake Over 37.   Duke has a completely inexperienced offensive line.  no experience at quarterback and Wake's QB is out of the game.  Need to go over... why you ask?  lots of possession, lots of turnovers.  turnovers cause field position which causes points.  Love the over..

Picks of the week...

1-2 last week, glad i didn't pick more games.  nothing like Mack Brown covering more than 5 tuddies. 

 

so here's we go...

 

Texas -2.5 vs. Ohio State.   Has a #1 vs. #2 game ever gotten this little hype?  Noone is talking about this game.  ND/Penn St is getting more hype.  Anyway,  Colt McCoy should be able to manage UT to a win in this one.  Ohio State proved they are a one-man team and one man team don't win championships.  To think I am picking Mack Brown in a big game is getting scary.

 

Penn St +8 vs. ND.  Lots of people think this is a bounceback game for the Irish.  But QBs with happy feet  don't lose them, especially against a good defense.   Plus ND still has noone who can cover Derrick Williams.

 

Texas Tech -7 vs. UTEP.  The system the system, the system.

 

 

NFL to come later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL

Duke football...not good-- the Roof is falling in

Duke football lost yesterday.  Again.  To a Division I-AA team. 13-0.  That's right, they didn't score.  And until the last 5 minutes, they weren't particularly close.  It wasn't like Richmond was just opportunistic, they dominated every phase of the game.

 

As a result, Blue Devil nation is pissed.  Surprisingly, they have enough energy or care enough to be pissed, especially after the administration cancelled Tailgate.  Most people are calling for Ted Roof's head, Joe Alleva's head and even Bill O'Brien (new offensive coordinator)'s head.  Everyone is pissed and looking for answers, but are concerned about starting another cycle of turnover/change and excuses.  the real questions is.. "Why can't Duke identify and hire a capable head coach?"

 

I think alot of it that that 1) we are too influences by recentevents (e.g. the recency mental block per MBA books) and the administration is just unaware of what makes a good head coach.

 

let's remember something. A football coach at a high-profile I-A schools is

1) an administrator first
2) then a leader,
3) then a motivator

then concerns himself with things around football. I don't think anyone here is questioning Ted Roof's knowledge of football, but rather his ability to lead an organization. That is where I think this thing is falling apart.

Famous business author Malcolm Gladwell, once said in an interview, that he would be a better coach or general manager than many in the NBA or NFL (including Isiah Thomas) despite never having played either game past high schoool. His reasoning was not that he knew any more than the others , but because he knew less and KNEW IT.

Over the past 2 years, Duke's problems have been due to poor preparation and adjustments-- (read: asst. coaches aren't doing their job). Now this is either happening because Ted can't hire/retain competant coaching or he won't let them do their job. Neither is acceptable.

I think we need to understand this whenever the next coaching search begins. The problem with Franks and Roof (both somewhat successful Asst. coaches)is that they haven't been able to exhibit organizational leadership. This is why previous D-1 head coaching experience is so important. it is also why I am a bit more skeptical of a I-AA head coach. Due to the smaller size, these coaches need to be more hands-on and can't manage the organization.

Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells, Pete Caroll and Mack Brown are great examples of this. Neither of them is known as a visionary, either on offense or defense, but they surroung themselves with talented people, motivate them and see the results.

one more

didn't see there was a line on Texas/ N. Texas

 

I'll take UT to open the season and cover big points against ANY team.  Lay the 41 with dirty orange.

opening football weekend.  I was able to have enough discipline to not bet ont he Nevada Dresno state game last night.

I dindt realize how few games there would be tonight.  I am getting zero value for my ESPN Gamplan.  What also pisses me off though is that they are putting some decent games on ESPNU.  seems a bit deceptive to me, but oh well.

 

 

anyway pics for today, (none of which I actually like that much,but oh well).

 

Michigan - 26 vs. Vanderbilt.   Noone is better against bad opposition than Chad Henne.  Also coaches on the hot seat tend to cover big numbers.

 

Notre Dame -6.5 at Ga Tech.  I know you aren't supposed to take ND and this has all the makings of a trap line.  But Weis doesn't coach like a normal ND coach and I think calvin johnson is the most overhyped WR in the country.  Also, ND's defense couldn't be much worse.  When ND has been gamplanning for a game for 5 months, you know they will be sharp.

 

 

Also of note, all NCAA totals this week.  with the new clock rules, it looks like there will be 15-20 fewer plays per game.  Will the average better adjust.  Would betting every game unde this week be a good choice??  we'll see.

sara stalks me too...

my wife has a great new blog.. .actually not that GREAT.   its about a persistant friend of hers who wants to hang out 24/7. check out sarastalksme.blogspot.com

 

 

 

 

party foul...

a new pet peeve of mine..

 

Cher and I had a party last weekend.  Good time, around 20 people came, but a few who RSVPed didn't make it.  Mostly people from work.  What drives me crazy are these same people explaining their sob story of why they couldn't come.   It's nice that they recognize that they didn't come, but at the end of the day I really don't care why they didn't make it.  it's the past over... let's move on.

 

 

is this thing on?

always want to know who is reading out there so here is a little game I play.  It's called question wonderland.

 

First, recommend to me:

A) A Movie
B) A Book
C) A Vacation spot

 

Then: Ask me three questions ... anything you want ... don't be shy ... and I will answer in the comments section.

congrats to billy and susie

Congrats to Billy Gould and Susie Becker who finally got engaged this past weekend. I know they will have a lifetime of happiness ahead of them. They are the perfect couple, they balance each other out, are the ying to the other's yang and are generally good people.

This relationship also proves a few important points.

1) High school seniors should spend a bit more time checking out 8th graders in their local junior high.

2) You can meet the love of your life at venues where barmaid dance on the bars.

3) Single people in Manhatten actually do get married. Take that, Sex in the City.

i am irate

not sure if you have heard the story about the little league championship game in bountiful, Utah.  To make a long story one of medium length, here is what happened.  Bottom of the sixth inning, two outs, the Red Sox are leading the Yankees by one run with two outs and a runner on third.  The Yankees best hitter is up.  On deck, if the Yankees weakest hitter, an undersized cancer survivor.  Given this situation, the Red Sox coach walks the best hitter and the cancer survivor strikes out.

 

The two coaches nearly come to blows and the liberal media got on this like stink on a money.  Rick Reilly and the media blasted the coach for this.  Apparently, in the new world, we need to find a way to be nice to our opponents.  The fact of the matter is that there are winning and losers in life.  The thing worse would if they didn't keep score.  Children need to learn how to live with disappointment.  Sports are a great way of teaching this.

 

And you know what, I am speaking from experience.  I have been one of the worst players on a little league team.  And guess what happened--- i practiced and got better.  Maybe the cancer survivor will never be intentionally walked himself.   However, he should at least have the chance to try.  because if we are going to try to "compete" in things but not really push ourselves to the limit, then how shallow is the victory?

 

 

For a more biased account of the events, check out rick reilly SI column about this.

 

sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/rick_reilly/08/07/reilly0814/index.html

menu for barbeque

- Johnsonburgers.

.....

 

 

still need to work on this though the weather looks good.

 

 

 

wsop final table

final table tonight...who will be the focus of the poker world for the next 12 months.  i'm rooting for AC, for all of those who said a top pro would never win the big one again.

 

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strasser out in 130ish place

lost a big hand early in the day AA vs. AK.  (he was AA)  After that, he hovered around 200K for a few hours, but never really got back into it.

 

In other news, the main event is about 1 day ahead of schedule now.  They were supposed to be down to 300 after yesterday, they are down to 137 now.  They are supposed to play down to 150 today so technically they don't even have to play.   However, they will end up stretch out the final table to 2 days now.  However, fatigue ath the final table won't be the difference this year.

Fwd: movie business challenge-- an equity market for movies (aka how to align theatre and studio interests)

Recently Mark cuban make a blog entry with the following challenge. 

 

So if you want a job, and have a great idea on how to market movies in a completely different way. If your idea works for any and all kinds of movies. If it changes the dynamics and the economics of promoting movies, email it or post it. If its new and unique, i want to hear about it. If its a different way of doing the same thing you have seen before, it probably wont get you a job, but feel free to try.
 

Here is my response.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: mark johnson <double  suited77@gmail.com>
To: mark.cuban@dallasmavs.com

 

Mark,

 

I am writing in response to your Movie business challenge blog entry from last week.  I have taken a slightly different approach than most of the others who have posted about ways to either get more people into the theatres or create a better value equation for those consumers.

 

Well these tactics may create some growth in the movie industry, they won't stem the existing tide of declining revenue for theatres.  Ultimately, growth in any industry must come through innovations.   For the movie industry, this means we need to change the business model for making a movie and getting mass distributions.  We need to take some costs out of the equation and reallocate some spending toward parties who can perform them better.

 

My proposal for you Mark, is the creation of an equity market for both movie financing and movie distributions.  In my market, studios will share equity portions of films at all stages of production.  In return for the equity, studios will receive either cash or more likely, guaranteed points of distribution or local marketing investment.   By pushing support for theatres down to the local levels, studios have now removed one of their biggest expenses.

 

This "efficient market" if you will, will make it easier for smaller films to be financed, while guaranteeing distribution at the same time.   As a result, marketing costs will be partially transferred from the studios to the theatres, who can market locally better anyway.  Films will now have an easier time being shown is cities other than New York and Los Angeles.

 

Current Scenario

 

There are currently three general key players in the movie industry rights—the movie studios(both large and small), the movie theatres and the consumers.   All they have in common is that they don't like doing business with the other two.

 

Consumers think they are paying too much for a commoditized experience.  Movie theatres complained about declining margins, lack of choice and little revenue from the back-end of the movies.   Studios are caught are suck in this high-spend situation because everyone else is doing it.

 

The biggest result from this scenario is the lack of quality films.  Marginal films can not be produced due to the problems described above.   What if there was some way to remove risk from the projects?  Let's find a way to make it easier for films to be financed and remove some of the risk from movie producers.

 

Some of these problem have been solved by the vertical integration of the process, which your companies have made significantly progress in.   As a result, you have created some differentiation between relatively similar chairs in the theatre.    I expect trends like this to continue.   However, given the declining number of theatres in America, the number of fully integrated movie companies will be limited as well.  We need to find another way to add more choice to market.

 

Problem 1:  Right now 80% of the screens are owned by a small number of companies.   Their efforts are centrally coordinated and relatively inefficient.   Since they are being squeezed on margins in both directions, they have little ability to promote content themselves.   As a result, these theaters are generally only interested in promoting films which have a huge general market media spend behind it.   As it stands, studios don't actively promote one film over another and really don't spend much behind any film at all.

 

Let's look at the income statement as a typical movie theatre.  Currently, it has a huge fixed cost base due to real estate.   As a result, theatres are doing whatever they can to push marginal consumers into the seats.   We saw this happen as 50-screen multiplexes opened up through the 90s.   Nice theory, however, when everyone else is doing it, it doesn't make much sense.  So now, we have a million screens out there some the exact same movies every 15 minutes.   Given the search for eyeballs, movie theatres are positioning themselves in high-traffic, high-population areas.  This is an expensive real estate strategy.   So let's reviews, we are adding a ton of costs to an undifferentiated movie experience.   Since consumers don't see any difference between theatres, these theatres has no incentive to market movies themselves since other competitors will just "Free ride" off their efforts.

 

Problem 2: Given problem 1, major movie studios need to make big bets.   In order to cut through the marketing clutter from advertising spending, only large pictures can be promoted.   As a result, many quality pictures are either not made, or made then not subsequently promoted because of poor intial test results.   There are more Direct-to-Video or limited  releases now than ever before simply because a full national release is not justified.

  

My solution

 

With an efficient market in place now, marginal films with risks of distribution due to poor support will now be able to be funded.  With distribution guaranteed, marketing effort can now be better targeted (hence, cheaper) and theatres will now have an interest in promoting certain pictures over another.  Moreover, under this system, there may be only one or two theatres within a city with a specific movie.  Now, there is some differentiation as well in the industry.

 

Additionally, we now have an alignment of goals between theatres and studios.  Those studios with distribution will now have a vested interest in promoting smaller films locally.  With guaranteed distribution, more films get made and will be shown outside of New York and LA.  The average consumer in Boise, who wants to go to the movies now has more choices.  With more choice, the movie industry will now get more share of these consumers' wallet.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to read this.  Please shoot me an email back if you have any thoughts or would like to talk about this further.

 

Best,

 

Mark

more complaints..

 

 

- PTI without BOTH Tony and Wilbon

- Women with big toes (especially when they try to show them off)

- The lack of new movies.   I'm not the biggest movie fan in the world, however, I heard so many people complaining about how Hollywood is dead.  Look at your local multiplex, find me one weekend other than amajor holiday one, where more than 2 major films opened.   One of my favorite shows is HDNET's nothing but trailers, however, the trailers change at a very slow rate... eason being, the pipeline is just so damn slow.

can the US finally be lovable winners?

So ok, they have only lost their last 2 international competitions, but it may as well have been the last 20.  The US men's national basketball team is not exactly the Chicago Cubs, but they aren't prohibitive favorites either.  Kinda strange but I am rooting for them more than I can remember rooting for a US team in a definitely, definitely more than the recent world cup.

 

I remember the 1992 olympics with the so-called Dream Team winning every game by 40 and generally making jackasses out of themselves.  The rest of the world didn't have the talent to compete and the US team finally convinced the sports world that they were as ugly americans as anyone else.   Over the next few years, the level of play slowly diminished as did their worldwide reputation.  They should have lost in Sydney and finally lost in Greece... and the rest of the World LOVED it.  As an American, I wasn't that upset because our best players didn't play, and those who did whined and I hate whiners.

 

But now things have changed.  we have a coach noone can criticize and the shenanigans of the past just won't happen with Coach K.  And one more things... we have put a TEAM together.  No longer do we have a shoot-first point guard and a center who is either a completely offensive liability or a complete defensive one.  The team works hards, isn't outwardly cocky.  I think this has the makings of a great story.

 

 

---------------

editor's note:  As I am typing this, the US is down 30-29 to puerto rico in the middle of the 2nd quarter.  oh well!!

Strasser

Jason strasser finished day of the main event as one of the chip leaders.  Way to represent Duke, Jason.

 

"Mom"

Parents came in town to visit last weekend and had a fairly respectable time. Minimal periods of awkward silence. Cheryl was quite nice to them, in fact nicer than I ever am.

The strangest thing was that she called my mother, "Mom" I don't think I have ever called my mother "mom". At least not in the last 15 or 20 so years. The more I think about it, the more I realize that I never use titles. Every day, I heard it, I almost looked around for something else.

you know its bad when

there used to be an off-color joke about a person tried tried to committ suicide and failed. I guess that just couldn't do anything right.

In related news, one of my wife's pestering friends was rejected from Eharmony.com, basically because they thought she was unmatchable. For some reason, all I can do is smile. Kind of like that episode on How I Met your Mother when Ted can't get matched from a dating service.

However, this friend is really a piece of work. She is in her early 40s, yet keeps trying to date guys in their mid-20s. However, she wants a committment. Even worse than that, she doesn't put out. Gee, I wonder why that doesn't work.


Let's see. Hey 26-year old guy. Wanna date any older women who wants a ton of committment and you won't get sex. Oh, by the way, she has been single forever and won't put out. Gee, I wonder why e-harmony couldn't match her. I used to make fun of e-harmony because of the way it matched "based" on feeling. But, when you take an unmatchable person and don't match them, you win some respect with me.

new website

great new website-- www.jockreport.com

 

 

kinda like drudge, but about sports.  it's my new guilty pleasure.

Fwd: The most wonderful time of the year

Dedicated to a certain small-cap analyst (with help from andy williams)

 

It's the most wonderful time of the year
When the earnings start coming,

You can't be off bumming. Gotta
Get those notes out to sales
It's the most wonderful time of the year

It's the hap-happiest season of all
There'll be much aggravation

And heart palpitations, if
any of your targets turn out not to be true
It's the hap-happiest season of all

There'll be reasons for misses,

New hypotheses and sudden  
optimism for top-line growth
There'll be dreams of new Lexus to replace
the old Beemers From
Of Earnings Season  long, long ago

It's the most wonderful time of the year

Financials models start churning

Midnight oil always burning
valuations always rise
It's the most wonderful time of the year

free time... or lack thereof

summer goes by so far.  It seems like no matter how much free time you think you are.  You are always overscheduled. 

 

People ask me what I am doing this summer and I will usually reply "nothing"  however, if you want to do something with me, it is hard to schedule any time.  Parents in town one weekend, going to a wedding another weekend, someone having a party another.  same thing with weeknights.  Remeber that I am chronically underscheduled too because of my natural aversion to socializing with people.

 

I wonder if one of the main reasons people go on vacation during the summer is so that they can free themselves of all their local social obligations.

great quotes about financial modeling

From my friend ash..

Top 5 quotes to avoid with Excel.

• “The model has always been that way”
• “Oh yeah, the model changed”
• “That’s a hardcode”
• “No problem, that will take me five minutes”
• “Because that’s what the model says”

feeling blue...

much has been made with my passion for Duke football. Or to put it another way, how I stay humble. Usually, there are high expectation which are usually cooled off 2 or 3 weeks into the season. This year it could be even worse.

It looks like Duke's starting quarterback true Sophomore Zack Asack will be the entire season for an academic suspension. This leaves Duke with only one non-true freshman scholarship QB. Now Marcus was one of the most hyped QBs Duke has ever had, but is very inexperienced, probably only took 20 snaps last year, almost all of which were pure running plays. Now he will be expected to command the entire offense. However, given the inexperience of the offensive line, a QB who knows how to run is probably a good thing.

things that annoy me.

My wife's blog last week had 100 things that she liked.  Since i am more mean spirited, here is my response-- things that annoy me.

 

1. Steven A. Smith

2. Tip jars at Starbucks

3. press coverage of Barbaro's fight for life.

4. credit card company telemarketers

5. friends of my wife who are too needy

6. people living in America who make no effort to speak English.

7. Commericials before trailers before movies.

8. the smell of movie theatre popcorn.

9. Zinadine Zadine

10. Carnie Wilson

11. Kelly Ripa

12. Waiters who don't deliver food to the table

13. Poorly designed hotel swimming pools with 1/3 of the adequate number of chairs

14. beginning golfers who take 5 practice swings.

15. well-dressed beggers.

do women have short attention spans?

isn't the typical stereotype that men have short attention spans.

 

last time, my wife finally found as sporting event that we liked on TV-- the home run derby.   I am not sure if the long home runs impressed her, or if it was the people in kayaks waiting for the ball.  Nonetheless, she was fully engaged in a sports event on tv for more than an hour.

 

 

wow.

 

 

 

what a disappointment..

Usually the NBA draft is one of the best days for unanticipated comedy.   Watching asian guys try and failed ot connect on a high-five.  Watching greasy Eurotrash players nearly make out with their entire family after being picked and the normal fashion disasters or five.

 

Unfortunately yesterday it didn't happen.  The number one pick was from Italy and all he got was a handshake.  The only thing close was when an African-American player from the inner city got drafted by Utah and his family looked scared when they realized where they would have to live the rest of your life.

 

 

MBAs gone wild...

Imagine for a second that you are in an MBA marketing class and your project is to fix the Chicago Cubs.  As a good MBA student, you want to work to maximize the value for your teams.  Here are a few key facts HBS-style

 

Andy MacPhail leans backs in his chair in the Tribune building and thinks about the Cubs greats in years past.  then we thinks to the future and realizes that he needs his organization to take the next step in

 

 

MBA students would likely come up with the following suggestions.

 

- Since we already sell out almost all of our games, let's raise ticket prices.

 

- Since we already sell out almost all of our games, let's raise beer prices.

 

- Since we already sell out almost all of our games, let's stop promoting our team in the community.

 

- Since we already sell out almost all of our games, 'let's stop acquiring top free agents.

 

 

Amazing, this is what has happened.   The cubs are on track to finish near the bottom of major league baseball this season and may end up in the top 2 or 3 in attendance.  In fact, they probably will.  What does this say about Chicago?

people actually click on his banner ads

check out this guy who makes nearly $1MM per quarter from Google Adsense.  Maybe I should turn my blog into an online dating site.

 

http://www.workhappy.net/2006/06/interview_with_.html

so this is what it is like to be cool...

went to a new hot club opening this weekend.  A new "liquor spa" called Stone Lotus opened in River North.  Due to Cheryl's connections at work, we got put on the VIP list.  It was supposed to be the fusion of high-end liquor, 5-star food and the best club music anywhere. Additionally, it was supposed to be populated by hipsters and celebs.

 

In a word, I was ready to hate.  As a general rule, I dislike any place where you have to wait (or pay) to get in and anyplace that cultivates a reputation for being tough to get into or being an elite place.  (As an aside I have no issues with places which end up being hangouts of people who want to be seen, I just have issues with places that openly cultivate that reputation.   I remember one sorority at Duke (not one of the better ones) which actually played up its snobby image.)

 

However, I was shocked Saturday night by a couple things-- 1) I actually didn't hate my experience and actually had a fairly good time and 2) anyplace where I am a VIP truly has no VIPs.  The rest of the VIP clientele consisted of either overweight gay men, salty single 35+ women or yuppies from the city trying to act happy that this is the only VIP event that they will ever get into. 

 

It was a decent place, though it has undoubtedly been overhyped.  Two small floors with bench seating around the perimeter and a few glorified ottomans serving as tables.  There was a waterfall against the wall and some pretty decent foods.

 

The high point of the experience was probably the waitress service.  The waitress were weating a black pant suit without shirts underneath, definitely showing off the girls.  The breastestss were held in by some sort of plastic apparatus.  Definitely looks uncomfortable but the staff didn't seem to mind.

 

I think Rodney Dangerfield said it best-- " I would never join any club that would accept me as a member."

life is good...

got a notice from Dish Network Friday confirming my Season Ticket college football package for the fall.   Life is good...

How long can the Windfall last?

Anyone who listens to me long enough knows how much I decry the current state of network television.  I used to love television.  Not necessarily for the acting, but for the writing.  Noone loves good wordplay within the English language for than I.  Other than the Left Wing Sport Night, Freaks and Geeks or Undeclared , I can't think of any consistently well-written television shows.  I know there have to be good writers other than Aaron Sorkin and Judd Apatow, but where are they?

 

This is why I have started to like Windfall so much.   It takes a simple events are shows the many sides of it without being overdone, predictable or dumbed down to the viewers.   The show and its characters are complexity and the writers realize that issues don't need to be resolved within each and every episode.  Well enjoyable to watch, it is kind of scary.  Almost all television programs that assume the viewer isn't stupid tend to be killed off relatively early in their life.

 

I am hopeful for Windfall yet.  It embraces the ensemble cast and has multiple storylines which should hopefully attract a diverse.  The basic premise of the show, I believe shoud draw viewers as well.  The inherently possible upward mobility of a free economy leaves people across all social strata wondering when their time for riches will come.  Windfall shows what happens when the dream does come true.

 

Ironically, this may end up being the demise of the show.  Histoical shows that television shows based around one event tend not to do that well.  After the first season, there is not necessarily anywhere to go with the plot (See My Two Dads, Life Goes On and Doogie Howser, MD).  Hopefully, the diverse cast will enable storylines unrelated to the premise of the show.  Entourage is facing that same challenge this year aswell.

 

So next Thursday night, I'll be watching Windfall, hopefully you will be too.  Now if only Jennie Garth could make a guest appearance as a woman from Luke Perry's past.

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

The other piece of must-see TV I have recently discovered is the King of Cars.  This is a reality show about the inner workings of supposedly the most successful used car dealership in the nation and its owner, Chopper.  One of the strange things this show does is actually makes you root for car salesman,  almost in the same way that you root for the girls in The Hills.

 

touche

Well, they found them.  Weapons of Mass destruction.  Thought at this point public sentiment is still too far again the war for this to make much of a difference some of us true Bush supporters find a bit of vindication in this.  Though I feel the mission is just even without finding the WMDs, hopefully support will increase as a result.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,200499,00.html

 

Just as interesting to be is that Rick Santorum called a press conference to release this news yesterday, however, only Fox News has this story on its website today.   And who said there is no liberal media bias.   Regardless of your political persuason, you can't deny that this is an important news story.

my old favorite airlines

When I traveled for a living, Northwest airlines used to be my favorite airlines. Automatic upgrades for anyone with status, plus a liberal status comping policy. They tended to arrive on time plus their terminals always had the best food. The BBQ in the Memphis terminal is so of the best I have ever had anyway. Even though I primarily fly United now, I have no qualms flying NW. (I still have status on their airline though i hadn't flown it more than 3 or 4 times in the past 3 years).

However, now Northwest has officially lost my business forever. They now have eliminated priority boarding and have embraced the Southwest Airlines herd boarding mentality. Thank you Northwest for ignoring the business travel. Thank you for igoring your consumer who pays more for tickets.

Thank you for making it easier for me to stick with United.

olympics and brand management

I just realized that being a mayor of a major city and being a brand manager have alot more in common than I previously believed.  One of my biggest complains of working in the Consumer packaged goods industry is that people in order to advance within an organization need to leave their mark on their department.  Some times this means support an idea which may or may not be the best idea for the organization, simply because it will leave a legacy.

 

A similar thing is going on with this ridiculous Olympic bid for the city of Chicago.  Richie Daley wants to be remembered as a mayor who brought something material to the city, not the leader of mass corruption-- a World's Columbian Exhibition if you will.  However, the World's Columbian exhibition did not involve building tons of structure which would never be used once the event was over, or create a huge publicly financed deck.  The only conceivable positive of the event is a regional rail system, though I doubt the economics of it would work after the event is over.

 

my thoughts-- richie clean up the mess and city hall and let another city have the pain of the olympics.

Why I would never send my child to St. Charles East

My wife and I talk alot about education. Maybe it is become we have about 36 years of organized education between us. Specifically, where we would sent any potential offspring, both to college and high school.

Cheryl is a graduate of the very small, rather diverse, University of Chicago Lab School and a very passionate alum. I went to the very big, very undiverse St. Charles High School, now St .Charles East.

Grades. One of the biggest selling points of St. Charles was that grades mattered. If you wanted to go to a decent college you needed to take virtually all AP classes and be ranked in the top 2 or 3%, no ifs, ands or buts about it. You knew you needed As and worked to get them. I think having to work in the pressure cooker is a good thing. Admittedly, this was made a bit easier by a curriculum that didn't real challenge you (but more on that later). Cheryl on the other hand, though she probably worked harder than I, didn't have to do it in a pressure-filled environment. People who were ranked in the bottom 10% of her class were admitted to Harvard and Yale. When I graduated, St. Charles hadn't sent a person to Harvard in the past 20 years.

Counseling. This is what you pay your tuition dollars for. Cheryl had a counselor who knew her personally and knew college admissions directors personally. She got SAT prep help that you can't find in any book and knew exactly how to get into any college she wanted to. I rotated through several counselors, one of whom didn't even know what state Yale was in.

Extracurricular activities. Obviously, alot more choices at St. Charles. Plus, any competition event St. Charles competition for state of national honors. (On a related note, I think the drop in athletic performance and academic performance since i graduated go hand in hand.) Lab had limited options. Big difference is that you could do whatever you wanted at lab and didn't need to specialize. At St. Charles, there can only be on newspaper editor or starting point guard. Despite this, kids always wanted to do more. Not sure why this was. Was it because there were more opportunities or because we all knew how stacked the college odds were against us.

Curriculum. Despite its size, Lab offered much much more for someone on the college track. Plus its relationship with the University was nice. St. Charles tried to offer more AP classes, but it had a catch-22. If it offered an advanced class, it needed to make sure that students would actually stick with it. As a result, the teachers couldn't push the students as much as they wanted to. I can really only remember two teachers who really pushed students, Jay Friberg and Lisa Hahns. Sadly, neither one of them is teacher there anymore. Don't get me wrong. I don't blame anyone at St. Charles High for the education I received. I truly believed most of the teachers and some of the administrators really tried hard and did what they could.
So where does that leave us? Obviously I believe that a large school has many selling points. Though from the perspective of a potential parent, you can't sacrifice your child's future just so they had an experience like Dad. In other words, if you live in the Chicago area and wanted to send your child to a top college from a public school, you have very limited options-- New Trier, Stevenson, Hinsdale Central and maybe a few others. There are some very good parochial schools as well like Loyola and Fenwick. But other than that, you are stuck with the big name private schools.

Its a funny game, a prisoner's dilemma of sorts. You want to prove that you can beat the system and get into a great college from an regular old public school, but you don't want to take the risk yourself. You'd like every other parent to send their smart kids to your public school, but you will still send your to the private school. An unfair game, but the one we live in.

Finally.. Some democracy in durham

some one has decided to challenge Mike Nifong in the November elections. http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/LegalCenter/story?id=2092304&page=1
Now, I am not crazy enough to think that a republican could win a citywide election in North Carolina. But to have someone actively challenging him should allow for additional details of the case to come out, which should have been out a long time ago.

10 year reunion

looking at the web this weekend and my high school, St. Charles East is apparently trying to reinvent the way it educates it educates its students (secondary school redesign) . Apparently, it has hired Brown University for suggestions on how to help. Some key ideas--

• Increase the number of AP classes
• Add mandatory study halls
• Increase counseling

No wonder I would never send me kids there. For more on this breakthrough program, go here www.d303.org

Eureka, I think we've found it...

That is, the reason the rest of the world is crazy and thinks that soccer (excuse me football) is the best sport in the world.
After watching a week of the World Cup, soccer must be the worst managed sport I have ever seen. You have referees kicking players out of the game without a clear reason. And then you have players ineligible for future games based on relatively minor infraction.
Imagine this. What is Shaquille O'Neal was ineligible to play in Game 5 tomorrow because he fouled out of the game. (Don't even get me going on Jerry Stackhouse.)
The organizers on any sport should work to ensure that the best players, the stars of its sport, are eligible to play on the world's greatst stage. I'm not sure if this is true, but someone told me that in the last world cup, Germany's best player wasn't eligible to play in the world cup final.
Beyond the nature of the game which puts a huge amount of the result under the capricious whimsy of the referee, what really irks me is that not even the announcers understand what is going on. For me, this is just a recipe for collusion and match fixture.
At this point I think the WWE has more credibility as a legitimate sporting even than the FIFA world cup.

Etymology of Mark

My favorite words (in no particular order)

• persnickety
• parsimonious
• penultimate
• diatribe
• lodestar
• recalcitrant
• capricious
• erudite
• rapture
• diatribe
• dichotomy
• parsimonious
• lodestar
• assuage
• deify
• perfunctory
• seminal
• concomitantly
• erudite
• ebullient
• assay

Tiger Woods... and Ann Coulter

Tiger Woods is going to miss the cut today at the US Open. This was his first tourney since the death of his father. Based on what I saw, he played horribly both days.

However, as an anti-Tiger advocate, I am faced with a tought situation. If I criticize him, albeit deserved, then I am mean-spirited since I am hitting someone when he is down.

This is just like the entire Ann Coulter issue. Very few people dispute whether or not she is right about 9/11 widows. The issue is just something that shouldn't be said, at least publicly. Worse yet, in both cases, you can't retract what you said since it is true.

The hardest lies to take back are those that are true

The Hills on MTV

... and no I am not talking about LC's breasts, but the latest reality show from MTV.

Got to love this show, its a break from rationale thought. Watch a group of privileged kids without any clue about life. LC's roommate, Heidi, who Bill Simmons calls the breakout star of the year, drops out of school after about 1/2 a day to take a job as an assistant with Bolthouse productions.

Oh, did i mentioned that Bolthouse productions is sponsoring the show? So anyway, Heidi is totally pumped about her new job, until her new boss tells her that she needs to come to work every day (gasp) and that she is expected to do actually work other than hang out with celebrities.She almost wants to quit since she thinks that liking envelopes is not what she though she signed up for. It amazes me how young people (even here in Chicago) think that they will be running the company on the first day.

LC is actually appears to be a somewhat sympathic character. She is the only person there who is taking her life seriously. She cares and wants to do well and feels overwhelmed by her Teen vogue job and school.Unlike my super sweet 16 and laguna, she is a reality character you actually want to see succeed.

question wonderland... part deux

One of my favorite blog post which I will repeat here. Also to see if anyone reads this...

Stolen from Kate

First, recommend to me:

A) A Movie

B) A Book

C) A City to visit

Then: Ask me three questions ... anything you want ... don't be shy ... and I will answer in the comments section.

great column by michael smerconish

I love Michael S and I think he hit the nail on the head here.

 

Ann Coulter speaks only for Ann Coulter and maybe a fringe element when she writes, with regard to certain 9/11 widows, that she's "never seen people enjoying their husband's deaths so much."
 
Her word choice is appalling, irrational, and indefensible.   
 
By now you have heard that in her new book, within a chapter titled "Liberals' Doctrine of Infallibility: Sobbing Hysterical Women", Coulter argues that certain Democrat messengers get a free ride because of their tragic backgrounds.  Four vocal 9/11 widows are her best evidence.   Her view that anyone who chooses to enter the fray themselves is open to criticism - regardless of their circumstance - is itself fair comment.  Too bad she didn't leave it at that, and keep the dialogue respectful.  But that's just not the way she earns a living.    
 
She wrote that Kristen Brietweiser is a "scold", and "Miss Va-Va Voom of 1968".  She referred to the four women as "weeping widows", and the "Witches of East Brunswick".  She had the indecency to ask "how do we know their husband's weren't planning to divorce these harpies?", and wondered "now that their shelf life is dwindling, they'd better hurry up and appear in Playboy."
 
Bill O'Reilly got it right when he said that "a no-spin rule is that you don't justify bad behavior by pointing to other bad behavior."  On the Factor, he said that one can easily get the impression that Coulter enjoys the personal attack "but once you get down to that level, you often lose the point".
 
That is exactly what occurred here.  Too bad.  Lost in the controversy she created to sell books are some otherwise salient, albeit less salacious points made by Coulter on such subjects as operation Able Danger.
 
Now, in the midst of her predictable vilification from the left, it is time for Coulter to be criticized from the right.   
 
With an already difficult November just a summer away, Republicans should rush to confront Coulter's comments rather than run the risk that anyone would associate her views with them.  She's a Fox fixture, who some may perceive as the personification of red states and Republican policy.  But that's not the case.  And that perception is dangerous.  Whatever advantage comes from having Coulter ignite a fringe base is far outweighed by the way she will be properly perceived as damaged goods in anything other than small circles.
 
So far, nationally, the GOP has missed the boat.  Last week, while Coulter's foibles filled the airwaves, the Republicans were busy grandstanding on gay rights, the death tax and flag burning.  Don't get me wrong, each is worthy of an up-and-down vote, but lost in this pure political theatre designed to give GOP candidates the opportunity to trumpet select issues was the damage being done by Coulter who did not face an equally orchestrated Republican response.     
 
Maybe that can change, beginning right here.
 
I've found that when asked, Republican office holders are willing to condemn Coulter.   And I am talking about individuals involved in the hottest races in the country: Senator Santorum, and Congressmen Weldon, Gerlach and Fitzpatrick.
 
A day after Coulter appeared on Today with Matt Lauer, I spoke with Senator Santorum.  I told him I was appalled by her comments and asked if he was?
 
"Probably more then you are.  I mean this is ridiculous.  I mean Ann is what?  Ann is someone who is out there trying to sell books and, you know appeal to a certain audience and I guess she's doing it," Santorum replied.
 
I asked if he was in the audience to which she's appealing?
 
"No, no, I don't consider myself, I'm not a part of that audience at all that's really on the edge as far as I'm concerned, maybe over the edge."
 
Over the edge indeed.
 
When Congressman Curt Weldon was equally critical of what she'd written, I told him that I was happy to hear that she was not speaking for his brand of Republican.
 
"No. I think that is obscene, I mean to take to somebody in their darkest hour of grief and try to say that somehow they're personally benefiting from that is just plain wrong, and while I generally support her I think she stepped way, way over the bounds on this one," said Weldon.
 
Ditto for Congressman James Gerlach.
 
"I am most saddened and disheartened by Ann Coulter's hateful statements concerning these widows. Regardless of their views  on any political or policy issue, they deserve to be treated with dignity and respect and my heart continues to go out to them and all of the families of the 9/11 victims for their tragic loss."
 
And is she speaking for Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick?
 
"No she's not, that's unfortunate as well, certainly doesn't speak for me there."
 
Santorum, Weldon, Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick.
 
But it was a hero from Arizona, Senator John McCain, who best articulated to me why we as Americans, not necessarily as Republicans, need to respond to Ann Coulter:
 
"We need to be more respectful of the views of others who disagree with us.  I've been giving a series of Commencement speeches.  The day before yesterday at Ohio State University, it was wonderful, there were 47,000 people there and the subject of my speech was that we should have vigorous debate and dialogue but we're not enemies.  The enemy is out there in Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda and the people that want to destroy us."     

most improved....

One of my mentors at work had a going away events last week with most of his team or key people he worked with in his three years in Chicago.  As part of the event, he gave out "awards" to his team to give some tongue in cheek thanks to everyone who worked with him.  Lots of awards were given,  "Cy Young", "Venzina" trophy, etc.  Mine was most improved.

 

Maybe I read too much into things (i know i do), but the negative connotation of the awards can't escape me.  I know it wasn't intentional or anything.  But the idea that I needed significant improvement when i joined the team irks me in a small way.

are indians asian?

Apparently, there is a debate out there over whether or not Indians (dots not feathers) are in fact asians.  I saw a hysterical website about this issue a few days ago, but for some reason didn't write down the link.

 

if anyone has the link, please let me know.

karma's a bitch

sitting on the couch yesterday, the phone rang for the my wife. It was someone in HR from Deloitte, the company Cheryl just left. They asked her questions like "why did you leave" and "would you ever work here again?" (because the people suck and No were the respectve answers.

In related news, a partner was recently fired for the turnover in Deloitte. Apparently, the last 25 people who left (all int he past 2 years from a 35 person group) named him as a reason. Gee, I wonder why the first 24 to leave wasn't a good sign.

In other news, Franco Turrinelli from William Blair has had yet another analyst quit on him. I wonder if he will need to go through 20 more before William Blair fires him or maybe they will be a bit more pro-active. Hopefully, they realize that having a senior analyst insult and demean his staff on a daily basis is not good for business.

my new addiction

got a new favorite website for first thing in the morning.  Its called dealbreaker.com.  Its from my college classmate, Elizabeth Spiers, aka "the only person in Mobile, AL smart enough to find a map out of town".   You may recognize her name from either the New York social scene or from the old days of Gawker (when it was good).

 

Dealbreaker is all about wall street gossip and news.  really well written and a quick read.  If you ever wanted to understand the problems of people making 500K+ per year, This is for you.

reading is catching on

I'm an educational snob.  I think we as a culture need to be as educated as possible.  So it pains me to say this, but i think this reading thing is getting out of control in the city of chicago.  in fact, its becoming a public safety hazard.

 

over the past few weeks, i have seen people walking around town reading and running into people.  it is worse than cell phone.  with a cell phone, people can generally walk and talk without hurting others.  people on their ipods can do the same.  maybe if books on tape become more popular, then chicago would be a safer city.

consumer tip #2: 900 N. Kingsbury Dry Cleaners

there is a dry cleaners in the 900 N. Kingsbury building. DO GO THERE. They
ruined my wife's wedding dress then tried to charge $200 to get back the ruined
dress.

consumer tip #1: DO NOT PATRONIZE EDDIE Zs

if you live in Chicago and are in the market for drapes, go someplace else.
you will agree to put down a deposit before installation and pay for the rest
after installation. right before they are installation, they will demand all
money immediately.

And if there is a problem don't try to get your money back with their no refund
policy.

The better business bureau should know about this unethicial behavior.

Fwd: PokerStars Blogger Championship - Error

picks of the weak

college football picks are back and back with a vengence.  Here are the first entry for this year.

 

2 units-- Duke (-2) vs. ECU

1 unit-- Rutgers(+1.5) vs. Illinois

1 unit-- Va. Tech (-5.5) vs. NC State

1 unit-- Uconn (-18) vs. Buffalo.

 

 

Some thoughts.  I hate being a homer, but Duke should win by 20 at least.  they finally have an experienced QB and stayed healthy in the off-season. With their good recruiting over the past two years, this is just a speed mismatch.

 

I like The Rut for the same reasons.  Zook will improve Illinois, but they just don't have anywhere near the team speed needed to compete on this level.

 

For Va Tech, I know alot of people think they are overrated  and I am even one of them.  But State just cant matchup.  Tech forces so many turnovers that they should win by at least 2 tuddies.

 

Finally, Uconn.  This is based on history.   Buffalo just never covers when a midlevel dog.

random thoughts

Some random thoughts

- Just found out that R. Kelly lives in my building. I guess that must be his
Rolls Royce on the 4th floor. Guess he is too poor to buy a deeded spot.

- Check out this story about a riot which happened when a school district sold
excess laptops for $50 each. While I feel sorry for those who were injured, I
feel even more sorry for the children in that school district. When the
administrators of your district don't understand rudimentary economics such
that they could set a revenue maximizing price, there is no hope for a quality
education http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050816/computer_frenzy.html

- I have a new favorite blog-- Former Susquhanna trader and poker dabbler
Jonathan Kaplans. Luckily, the blog is still small enough that the writer can
have a relationship with his readership . I like his mix between poker and
things not poker and his love of proper grammar and etymology.
http://www.livejournal.com/users/jonathankaplan/

People must be reading my blog.

Just found out that they will be making the smurfs into a movie, just as I had
predicted a few months back. However, the movie will be a CARTOON. While not
put great technical effects with real actors. that could really bring the
movie back to life.

In other news, I won another omaha 8 tourney the other night. I am really on a
roll. Now if only I could figure out how to play no limit holdem.

bet the turn

its just good advice.